Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

Sales rose in South County even with mortgage rates above 7%

By Momi Gonzales

Real estate, Primary market

Let's talk about the number that should stop you mid-scroll. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That's not a typo. Rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com. And yet, buyers here kept buying.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,618 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That's up 6.8% from the same three months in 2025. Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026. South County went the other way.

What does that mean for you? Buyers are still making deals work. They're just doing more math first. If you're moving up, your payment plan matters as much as your target price. A rate at 7.28% on a bigger loan is a real number. Know it before you fall in love with a house.

Supply is tighter here than it looks nationally

The National Association of Realtors put national months of supply at 4.9 months, the highest in over ten years. Here, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the Primary market had 1,494 homes for sale in the same period, down 3.4% from a year before. Less supply, more buyers. That's a different math problem than the national story.

Prices moved in both directions, depending on where you look

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year between second quarter 2025 and second quarter 2026. South County neighborhoods ran both ahead of and behind that number. A few places saw prices pull back. Most held or climbed.

Otay Ranch (91913) saw the median sale price hit $891,000, up 10% from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes there sold in a median of 24 days, 10 days faster than the same period last year. More than half, 55.8%, sold above list price.

The San Miguel Ranch and Rolling Hills Ranch area (91914) had a median of $1,205,000, but prices there dipped 5.8% year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes took a median of 35 days to sell. That's the same as a year before. If you own there, pricing sharp matters more than it did two years ago. And if you're buying there, check the Mello-Roos for the specific address. Mello-Roos is a special tax added on top of regular property tax, common in newer East side communities. The amount varies by address, so confirm it before you make an offer.

Bonita (91902) held its own at a $1,185,000 median, up 10.2%. Homes sold in a median of 20 days, 8 days faster than last year. Supply stayed tight, with only 23 homes for sale.

The West side is moving

The West side of Chula Vista, the 805 is the line, showed real momentum. In 91910, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 109 homes sold, up 38% year over year. The median price was $830,000, up 10.5%. Days on market crept up 4 days to 22, and the share selling above list price slipped 9.6 points to 48.6%. Still nearly half. Still competitive.

In 91911, 99 homes sold, up 25.3%. The median was $799,000, up 9.5%. Homes went under contract in a median of 21 days, 5 days faster than a year ago. More than a third, 37.1%, went under contract within two weeks of listing.

Two places that read differently from the rest

South San Diego (92154) had a median sale price of $730,000, down just 0.7% from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes took a median of 32 days to sell, 7 days longer than last year. But 54.5% sold above list price, and pending sales rose 11.8%. More buyers are in the pipeline even if things move a little slower.

One neighborhood stood apart in a different way. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 6.4 months of supply in 91932, up 2.3 months from a year ago. That's the highest months of supply in this market. Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home currently listed, at the current pace of sales. Below 3 months generally favors sellers. Above 5 or 6 months shifts toward buyers. Sellers in 91932 should price carefully and expect more negotiation.

Speed: where homes are moving fastest

The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 62.2% of homes in 91945 went under contract within two weeks of listing. That was up 47.6 points from a year before, the biggest jump in the market. Median days on market there: 12. That's the fastest in the Primary market.

What this means if you're moving up

Most of this market is under 3 months of supply. That means sellers still have leverage in most neighborhoods. But buyers are doing more math than they were two years ago. At 7.28%, according to Freddie Mac, the payment on a bigger loan is a real constraint. If you're moving up, run the numbers on the new payment before you list your current home. Know your floor.

If you own on the East side, confirm the Mello-Roos for any home you're considering. It can add hundreds of dollars a month to your payment. Ask for the CFD disclosure, which is the document that spells out the special tax amount, and verify it with the district before you remove contingencies. A contingency is a condition in your contract that lets you back out without losing your deposit if something doesn't check out.

For schools, buyers in Chula Vista ask about this constantly. Elementary schools fall under the Chula Vista Elementary School District, and middle and high schools under the Sweetwater Union High School District. School assignment depends on the specific address, so confirm it directly with the district before you write an offer.